Market Perspectives

  • 01 Mar 2024

    Bifurcation

    3 mb

  • 01 Feb 2024

    Risk premia erosion

    3 mb

  • 01 Dec 2023

    Siren calls

    3 mb

  • 01 Sep 2023

    A deepening policy dilemma

    3 mb

  • 01 Aug 2023

    Tricky last mile(s)

    3 mb

  • 01 Jun 2023

    Mind the gap(s)

    2 mb

  • 01 May 2023

    Laws of gravity

    3 mb

  • 01 Mar 2023

    Unfinished jobs

    5 mb

  • 01 Feb 2023

    Divergent perspectives

    3 mb

  • 01 Dec 2022

    Chasing the bandwagon?

    3 mb

  • 02 Nov 2022

    Third time lucky?

    3 mb

  • 01 Sep 2022

    Tightening pain

    3 mb

  • 01 Aug 2022

    Climbing a wall of worries? It is very slippery

    3 mb

  • 01 Jun 2022

    Walking the talk, for now

    3 mb

  • 01 May 2022

    The hour of the hawks

    3 mb

  • 30 Mar 2022

    Mission Impossible

    3 mb

  • 31 Jan 2022

    The Fed has left the party

    2 mb

  • 30 Nov 2021

    It’s not over till it’s over

    2 mb

  • 05 Nov 2021

    Supply shock = central banks’ headache

    3 mb

  • 01 Sep 2021

    A stony path to normality

    3 mb

  • 28 Jul 2021

    Overfretting about the triple peak

    3 mb

  • 01 Jun 2021

    Monetary balancing acts

    3 mb

  • 03 May 2021

    Grand Reopening

    2 mb

  • 02 Mar 2021

    Reflation boon and bane

    3 mb

  • 01 Feb 2021

    Choppy, not murky

    3 mb

  • 01 Dec 2020

    A shot in the arm

    3 mb

  • 01 Sep 2020

    Covid paralysis recedes as political risk rises

    3 mb

  • 03 Aug 2020

    Enjoy summer while it lasts

    2 mb

  • 01 Jun 2020

    Economic Hardship vs. Policy Deluge

    3 mb

  • 30 Apr 2020

    Limping out of the lockdown

    2 mb

  • 28 Feb 2020

    Viral uncertainties

    3 mb

  • 31 Jan 2020

    (Vir)alteration of investor optimism

    2 mb

Focal point

  • 16 Sep 2021

    Chinese regulatory crack-down: consequences for investors

    3 mb

  • 13 Sep 2021

    German election: What is at stake?

    356 kb

  • 27 Aug 2021

    Going public: Central banks’ digital currency ambitions

    439 kb

  • 28 Jul 2021

    ECB greening of the credit market to start in 2022

    460 kb

  • 01 Jul 2021

    China: Tackling the “Grey Rhinos”

    467 kb

  • 01 Jun 2021

    EM Vulnerabilities Monitor: a new tool to gauge post-pandemic risks

    256 kb

  • 19 May 2021

    Inflation woes and a dovish Fed drive long rates up

    311 kb

  • 30 Mar 2021

    Inflation expectations remain anchored

    381 kb

  • 05 Mar 2021

    Oil: strong, but not permanent price increase

    256 kb

  • 17 Feb 2021

    Euro area inflation: recovering, not exploding

    569 kb

  • 05 Feb 2021

    Vaccines to trigger uneven recoveries from Covid

    244 kb

  • 21 Jan 2021

    US inflation: rising, not soaring

    258 kb

  • 14 Jan 2021

    Equities: stay positive with a value-cyclical tilt

    282 kb

  • 17 Nov 2020

    European defaults likely to stay low

    695 kb

  • 13 Nov 2020

    US: Split government not toothless on growth

    627 kb

  • 09 Oct 2020

    US election: known and unkown uncertainties

    407 kb

  • 21 Sep 2020

    Equities: positive returns ahead despite challenges

    678 kb

  • 17 Sep 2020

    Taking monetary policy to yet another level

    504 kb

  • 14 Jul 2020

    Inflation still a distant threat in the post-Covid world

    309 kb

  • 06 Jul 2020

    Focal Point Brexit: Painful negotiations with a modest result ahead

    664 kb

  • 19 Jun 2020

    Covid-19: proprietary models set to monitor pandemic evolution

    729 kb

  • 28 May 2020

    State-aid framework under Covid: what impact on credit markets?

    840 kb

  • 18 May 2020

    The deep economic fallout from global distancing

    381 kb

  • 11 May 2020

    German CC ruling: How much pain for the ECB?

    596 kb

  • 08 May 2020

    The oil price plunge will reshape the energy market

    393 kb

  • 27 Apr 2020

    The Dutch pension fund industry reform proposal

    671 kb

  • 20 Feb 2020

    Spain: Headwinds ahead but Bonos to stay solid

    580 kb

  • 30 Jan 2020

    The Corona virus: What to expect?

    216 kb

  • 28 Jan 2020

    US outlook: a soft landing supported by the Fed

    563 kb

  • 25 Feb 2019

    Germany: Rock in the wind or blown into recession?

    549 kb

  • 22 Feb 2019

    US yields capped as Fed takes note of limited market tolerance

    302 kb

  • 21 Feb 2019

    Brexit: A bumpy road but we favor a benign outcome

    629 kb

  • 12 Dec 2018

    The Fed in 2019: more data-driven, not yet pausing

    423 kb

  • 11 Dec 2018

    Core Matters: The economic and financial impact of demographics

    703 kb

  • 26 Oct 2018

    Runoff in Brazil: Bolsonaro to win, but hard job ahead

    467 kb

  • 12 Oct 2018

    The fall-out of a Crash Brexit

    461 kb

  • 10 Oct 2018

    “R-star”: less cherished, but still useful

    359 kb

  • 13 Sep 2018

    Core Matters: How do assets perform in a maturing business cycle?

    413 kb

  • 13 Sep 2018

    Core Matters: How do assets perform in a maturing business cycle?

    415 kb

  • 11 Sep 2018

    China: How much cooling is Beijing likely to tolerate?

    645 kb

  • 08 Aug 2018

    ECB: End of QE brings reinvestment policy into focus

    428 kb

  • 01 Aug 2018

    Greece: Ready for the next challenges after bailout exit

    373 kb

  • 01 Aug 2018

    High noon in Brexit negotiations

    458 kb

  • 26 Feb 2018

    The Fed to hike rates at least three times in 2018

    547 kb

  • 16 Feb 2018

    Italian election: Not that threatening anymore

    490 kb

  • 09 Feb 2018

    European Safe Bonds: An ambitious project

    291 kb

  • 22 Dec 2017

    Demand and output cuts to support prices in 2018

    451 kb

  • 30 Nov 2017

    Despite tough Brexit talks, UK yields to rise slowly

    527 kb

  • 28 Nov 2017

    Higher equity valuations increase short term risk

    377 kb

  • 28 Nov 2017

    Higher equity valuations increase short term risk

    377 kb

  • 27 Oct 2017

    ECB tapering to support upward trend in yields

    464 kb

  • 11 Oct 2017

    Markets' tax hopes to be tested in Congress

    451 kb

  • 29 Sep 2017

    Japanese equities: Topix to benefit from solid growth and weaker yen

    454 kb

  • 28 Sep 2017

    EA Corporate Bonds: Tougher times ahead

    550 kb

  • 26 Sep 2017

    China’s Party Congress to address key challenges

    492 kb

  • 25 Sep 2017

    Harm from Catalan referendum to prove temporary

    315 kb

  • 06 Sep 2017

    China’s capital flows back to more stability

    622 kb

  • 04 Sep 2017

    US Inflation: A slow awakening ahead

    426 kb

  • 30 Aug 2017

    Macron’s reforms start being implemented

    638 kb

  • 11 Aug 2017

    Mounting risks to EUR High Yield bonanza

    453 kb

  • 19 Jul 2017

    Correction in Bund yields does not herald sell-off

    419 kb

  • 09 Jun 2017

    Fed policy tightening still underpriced by markets

    260 kb

  • 06 Jun 2017

    UK snap elections may fail to ease Brexit negotiations

    637 kb

  • 30 May 2017

    Brazil: A bumpy road ahead but reform push is not dead

    439 kb

  • 26 May 2017

    US trade policy: More barking than biting

    381 kb

  • 23 May 2017

    US: Steady growth, but hopes of fiscal boost cool

    271 kb

  • 12 May 2017

    Italy: Political risks unlikely to abate anytime soon

    315 kb

  • 05 May 2017

    Macron’s election would lower political risk premium

    440 kb

  • 04 Apr 2017

    French elections: What is at stake?

    427 kb

  • 31 Mar 2017

    Brexit negotiations to start tough

    371 kb

  • 24 Mar 2017

    Greece: No deal yet, but 2015-style crisis unlikely

    301 kb

  • 10 Mar 2017

    Limited risks from Dutch election outcome

    547 kb

  • 08 Mar 2017

    Accelerated US rate hikes ahead

    467 kb

  • 21 Dec 2016

    Trumponomics and the case for higher US rates 21 December, 2016

    294 kb

  • 15 Dec 2016

    BoJ to show commitment to its interest targets 15 December, 2016

    207 kb

  • 18 Nov 2016

    Italian referendum: Future governability at stake 18 November, 2016

    489 kb

  • 09 Nov 2016

    What is at stake with Trump as new US President? 9 November, 2016

    311 kb

  • 04 Nov 2016

    US election: equity martet implications 4 November, 2016

    679 kb

  • 24 Oct 2016

    Earnings growth to turn back into positive territory 24 October, 2016

    467 kb

  • 18 Oct 2016

    China’s structural debt problem is still aggravating 18 October, 2016

    245 kb

  • 13 Oct 2016

    Debt issuance cannot keep up with ECB purchases 13 October, 2016

    269 kb

  • 06 Oct 2016

    Impacts of a European Financial Transaction Tax 6 October, 2016

    412 kb

  • 30 Sep 2016

    Oil prices: A mild rebound is in the cards 30 September, 2016

    641 kb

  • 16 Sep 2016

    ECB: Action postponed towards year-end 16 September, 2016

    527 kb

  • 06 Sep 2016

    US presidential elections: What is at stake? 6 September, 2016

    542 kb

  • 19 Jul 2016

    Helicopter money: A viable policy tool? 19 July, 2016

    429 kb

  • 07 Jul 2016

    US: The labor market continues to support growth 7 July, 2016

    598 kb

  • 22 Jun 2016

    Spanish elections: Still long negotiations to follow 22 June, 2016

    270 kb

  • 10 Jun 2016

    Brexit: The fallout on Europe 10 June, 2016

    411 kb

  • 30 May 2016

    ECB to give new momentum to euro area credits 30 May, 2016

    321 kb

  • 17 May 2016

    Greece: A pragmatic deal but only for the short term 17 May, 2016

    327 kb

  • 22 Apr 2016

    Italy: Escape velocity not achieved yet 22 April, 2016

    329 kb

  • 18 Apr 2016

    Japan's monetary policy: Next Bazooka imminent? 18 April, 2016

    461 kb

  • 30 Mar 2016

    What's next for US inflation? 30 March, 2016

    556 kb

  • 17 Mar 2016

    New ECB measures: A mixed bag for banks 17 March, 2016

    267 kb

  • 08 Mar 2016

    ECB: Further easing steps ahead 8 March, 2016

    370 kb

  • 07 Mar 2016

    Brexit: What is at stake? 7 March, 2016

    906 kb

  • 22 Feb 2016

    Credit: Searching for value after recent market woes 22 February, 2016

    516 kb

  • 20 Jan 2016

    Earnings outlook to favor EA equities

    419 kb

  • 05 Jan 2016

    German growth to stay solid 5 January, 2016

    562 kb

OUTLOOK

  • 18 Dec 2019

    2020

    2 mb

  • 19 Dec 2018

    2019

    3 mb

  • 13 Dec 2017

    2018

    2 mb

  • 19 Dec 2016

    2017

    2 mb

  • 01 Dec 2015

    2016

    3 mb

Working papers

  • 20 Dec 2017

    What causes insurance fraud? Evidence on motor third part liability in Italian provinces

    596 kb

  • 20 Dec 2017

    Business cycle and motor insurance profitability: evidence for Italy

    805 kb

  • 28 Sep 2016

    We challenge the common wisdom that the income elasticity of insurance be higher, ceteris paribus, in developing countries (the so-called S-curve hypothesis). Focusing on non-life insurance, we show that the available evidence is contradictory and heavily dependent on methodology. Based on a recent approach to consistent inference on the income elasticity of insurance, we show counterexamples to the theory. Although not supporting it in general, we argue that it could still be relevant for explaining the behaviour of particular lines of business.

    373 kb

  • The development of Italian private pension plans shows little progress, in spite of generous fiscal incentives. We show that few subjects contribute and even fewer fully exploit the fiscal advantage. Our analysis underlines that in evaluating fiscal incentives Italian savers are influenced by a wide range of heuristics. So there is room for skillful public and private decision makers to reach the goal of increasing the private pension pillar taking advantage of the way people really take their decisions.

    2 mb

  • This paper analyses the impact of the evolution of the regulation dealing with systemically important insurance groups, using an event study methodology. The results show that investors were able to detect which companies were to be designated well ahead of the publication of the list. Most important, after an initial positive reaction, consistent with the expectation of a “Too-big-to-fail” implicit subsidy, the disclosure on how the capital charges for systemic insurers will be calculated led to sizeable negative abnormal returns for the entities concerned.

    2 mb

Market research

  • 08 Jul 2019

    Insurance market trends in Europe are positively shaped by the peculiar economic situation characterizing the euro area. A rearrange towards products where the return volatility risk is shifted to the policyholder is taking place all over the life industry. Non-Life lines were responsible for keeping the insurance sector afloat, both from the point of view of turnover and from that of profitability. In 2018 the overall premium income in the italian insurance industry started to grow again (+2.7%) amounting to more than 140 billion. Premium income in the life segment amounted to almost 106 billion posting a 2.7% increase (considering gross direct written business). Hybrid policies remain the most important products in terms of premiums income, since they ensure capital protection and higher returns provided that stock market performance stays in positive territory in the mid-long run. By contrast, unit-linked policies decreased their weight but this has been someway -counterbalanced by the increasing demand for traditional policies notwithstanding the problematic financial context of low yields. The non-life insurance sector showed growth for the second year in a row and turnover was +2.7% driven by the good performance of the motor sector (+1.5%), after the bad results of the last six years, and by the increase in MTPL premiums (+0.6%). The non-motor segment showed a steady increase of +3.7% as against the +2.7% posted in 2017 and +1.5% in 2016. Generali Group confirmed its market leadership in terms of global business, with a premium income of €24,202 million and a 16.8% market share.

    936 kb

  • 20 Jun 2018

    The growth of gross written premiums in 2017 was significant in the Central and Eastern European countries, while it was negative or stable with respect to the previous year in the Western countries. In 2017 the overall premium income in the Italian insurance industry declined for the second year in a row (-2.2%) amounting to almost 140 billion. Premium income in the life segment amounted to 103 billion suffering a 3.4% decrease (considering gross direct business written by Italian companies). The current low interest rate environment continued to negatively affect the appeal of guaranteed products and, also in the light of the stringent requirements imposed by Solvency II, insurance companies have shifted the product mix in favor of class III policies and multiline (hybrid) products. After five years of disappointing results, the non-life lines grew by 1.2% but negatively affected by the poor trend in the motor sector (-0.7%), due to the strong competition between operators favored by the good technical results, driven by low claims frequency (in line with European countries) and by a contraction, albeit slight, in the average cost of claims. Generali Group confirmed its market leadership in terms of global business, with a premium income of €23,165 million and a 16.6 % market share.

    605 kb

  • 16 Jun 2017

    In most of the core European markets the trend of the life insurance was mainly negative in 2016, with the only notable exception of Spain and Hungary, given that the macroeconomic scenario continued to be characterized by very low bond yields. The shift towards Unit linked products was not able to recover the falling down of traditional products and now insurers are mainly pushing for hybrid products. Non-life insurance premium collection posted a far better result than the life one, in line with the previous year, thanks in particularly to the good performance of the motor insurance where we are seeing a recovery after years of low profitability.

    758 kb

  • 17 Jun 2016

    Economic growth in Euro area continued but remained frail sustained by the recovery of the internal demand with positive impact on insurance sector in almost all European Countries. The macroeconomic scenario characterized by very low bond yields, especially in the core European markets, was still a burden for the life insurance; the only notable exception was Spain where gross written premiums, after years of a negative trend, increased versus the previous year thanks to the performance of the risk business (+7.6%) driven by the recovery of the housing market. The new wave of uncertainty that affected financial markets at the end of the year re-oriented life insurance demand, previously focused on unit linked products, towards traditional product with guarantees.

    763 kb

  • 30 Jun 2015

    During 2014 the improvement in financial conditions created opportunities for the insurance business in most of the European markets, where premium income and profitability were broadly on the rise. In the Euro area, life insurance premiums experienced substantial growth in several markets, maintaining and even overtaking the good performance of 2013. However, there are two exceptions to this trend: Germany, where growth slowed down and where the persistence of a low interest rate environment negatively affected the appeal of guaranteed and may represent a threat to companies financial stability, and Spain, where there was only a moderate level of growth in the life premiums in contrast to substantial contraction in past year. Low investment return combined with Solvency II Requirements have rapidly shifted the product mix in favor of Unit Linked policies.

    6 mb

  • 30 Jun 2014

    In 2013, the European insurance industry posted overall positive results. Life insurance premiums increased while the performance of non-life insurance was on average in line with that of 2012. In Italy, in 2013, total turnover was up 13.3%. In particular, life premiums (direct Italian business) grew by 22.5%; new business was up 31.3%.

    5 mb

  • 28 Jun 2013

    Market uncertainty and volatility heavily affected the performance of insurance industry in 2012. Life insurance turnover continued to contract in many of the main European markets due to the same factor which depressed premium growth in 2011, namely low household savings ratio and the unappealing level of guaranteed yields, especially in comparison with those of bank products, which were also supported by aggressive marketing strategies. These factors are clearly at play in the Italian market, where premiums were down 3.8%. Much of the fall was recorded in the first part of the year: the rebound in confidence following ECB action in September boosted collection in the final quarter of the year.

    392 kb

  • 29 Jun 2012

    In 2011 the performance of the Italian insurance industry was heavily affected by the difficult financial and economic situation in Europe. Premium income in the life sectors dropped all over Europe compared with the previous year, as the difficult economic conditions facing families seriously hindered their propensity to save. On top of that, the decline in guaranteed returns due to pre-crisis low interest rate environment, combined with the effect of strong competition from other savings products, especially those distributed by banks, contributed to further wors-en the life insurance performance. This trend was apparent on the Italian market, where life premium income fell by 12.3% (reaching 18.3% if we take into account direct Italian premium income) and where bancassurance channel recorded an over 25% decline in premiums .

    937 kb

  • 29 Jul 2011

    The stabilisation of the financial markets during 2009 promoted the growth The strong recovery of premium income recorded in the life sector in 2009 continued on all the main markets in 2010. Growth was again driven by low risk products which offer a minimum guaranteed return; demand for these products benefited from a rather steep yield curve and the volatility of the stock markets, which in many countries penalised the growth of linked products. The Italian market was once again the most dynamic, with 9.2% growth.

    451 kb