Generali Group

          where we are

                                   

          Macroeconomic and insurance research

          This page hosts contributions from the Generali Group’s specialized research and analysis centres: Generali Investments' Group Macroeconomic and Financial Research and Generali's Group Insurance Research.

          Generali Investments video interviews

          The video series Generali Investments in Action provides regular interviews with Generali Investments’ research senior specialists and their views on the financial markets.

          GI video interviews

          GI video interviews

          Market Perspectives

          Generali Investments' Market Perspectives publication delivers monthly information about the international financial markets. It deals with up-to-date economic data as well as current trends at capital markets. This publication is available only in English.

          Market Perspectives

          • 31 Jul 2018

            August 2018

            2 mb

             
          • 30 May 2018

            June 2018

            3 mb

             
          • 30 Apr 2018

            May 2018

            2 mb

             

          Focal point

          The Generali Investments' Focal Point publication is designed to address on an ad hoc basis varying topics of high relevance for financial markets. Its focus is medium-term in order to support the Tactical Asset Allocation process with relevant  investment ideas.

          FOCAL POINT

          • 11 Sep 2018

            China: How much cooling is Beijing likely to tolerate?

            645 kb

             
          • 08 Aug 2018

            ECB: End of QE brings reinvestment policy into focus

            428 kb

             
          • 01 Aug 2018

            Greece: Ready for the next challenges after bailout exit

            373 kb

             

          Focal Point

          • 11 Sep 2018

            China: How much cooling is Beijing likely to tolerate?

            645 kb

             
          • 08 Aug 2018

            ECB: End of QE brings reinvestment policy into focus

            428 kb

             
          • 01 Aug 2018

            Greece: Ready for the next challenges after bailout exit

            373 kb

             
          • 01 Aug 2018

            High noon in Brexit negotiations

            458 kb

             
          • 26 Feb 2018

            The Fed to hike rates at least three times in 2018

            547 kb

             
          • 16 Feb 2018

            Italian election: Not that threatening anymore

            490 kb

             
          • 09 Feb 2018

            European Safe Bonds: An ambitious project

            291 kb

             
          • 22 Dec 2017

            Demand and output cuts to support prices in 2018

            451 kb

             
          • 30 Nov 2017

            Despite tough Brexit talks, UK yields to rise slowly

            527 kb

             
          • 28 Nov 2017

            Higher equity valuations increase short term risk

            377 kb

             
          • 28 Nov 2017

            Higher equity valuations increase short term risk

            377 kb

             
          • 27 Oct 2017

            ECB tapering to support upward trend in yields

            464 kb

             
          • 11 Oct 2017

            Markets' tax hopes to be tested in Congress

            451 kb

             
          • 29 Sep 2017

            Japanese equities: Topix to benefit from solid growth and weaker yen

            454 kb

             
          • 28 Sep 2017

            EA Corporate Bonds: Tougher times ahead

            550 kb

             
          • 26 Sep 2017

            China’s Party Congress to address key challenges

            492 kb

             
          • 25 Sep 2017

            Harm from Catalan referendum to prove temporary

            315 kb

             
          • 06 Sep 2017

            China’s capital flows back to more stability

            622 kb

             
          • 04 Sep 2017

            US Inflation: A slow awakening ahead

            426 kb

             
          • 30 Aug 2017

            Macron’s reforms start being implemented

            638 kb

             
          • 11 Aug 2017

            Mounting risks to EUR High Yield bonanza

            453 kb

             
          • 19 Jul 2017

            Correction in Bund yields does not herald sell-off

            419 kb

             
          • 09 Jun 2017

            Fed policy tightening still underpriced by markets

            260 kb

             
          • 06 Jun 2017

            UK snap elections may fail to ease Brexit negotiations

            637 kb

             
          • 30 May 2017

            Brazil: A bumpy road ahead but reform push is not dead

            439 kb

             
          • 26 May 2017

            US trade policy: More barking than biting

            381 kb

             
          • 23 May 2017

            US: Steady growth, but hopes of fiscal boost cool

            271 kb

             
          • 12 May 2017

            Italy: Political risks unlikely to abate anytime soon

            315 kb

             
          • 05 May 2017

            Macron’s election would lower political risk premium

            440 kb

             
          • 04 Apr 2017

            French elections: What is at stake?

            427 kb

             
          • 31 Mar 2017

            Brexit negotiations to start tough

            371 kb

             
          • 24 Mar 2017

            Greece: No deal yet, but 2015-style crisis unlikely

            301 kb

             
          • 10 Mar 2017

            Limited risks from Dutch election outcome

            547 kb

             
          • 08 Mar 2017

            Accelerated US rate hikes ahead

            467 kb

             
          • 21 Dec 2016

            Trumponomics and the case for higher US rates 21 December, 2016

            294 kb

             
          • 15 Dec 2016

            BoJ to show commitment to its interest targets 15 December, 2016

            207 kb

             
          • 18 Nov 2016

            Italian referendum: Future governability at stake 18 November, 2016

            489 kb

             
          • 09 Nov 2016

            What is at stake with Trump as new US President? 9 November, 2016

            311 kb

             
          • 04 Nov 2016

            US election: equity martet implications 4 November, 2016

            679 kb

             
          • 24 Oct 2016

            Earnings growth to turn back into positive territory 24 October, 2016

            467 kb

             
          • 18 Oct 2016

            China’s structural debt problem is still aggravating 18 October, 2016

            245 kb

             
          • 13 Oct 2016

            Debt issuance cannot keep up with ECB purchases 13 October, 2016

            269 kb

             
          • 06 Oct 2016

            Impacts of a European Financial Transaction Tax 6 October, 2016

            412 kb

             
          • 30 Sep 2016

            Oil prices: A mild rebound is in the cards 30 September, 2016

            641 kb

             
          • 16 Sep 2016

            ECB: Action postponed towards year-end 16 September, 2016

            527 kb

             
          • 06 Sep 2016

            US presidential elections: What is at stake? 6 September, 2016

            542 kb

             
          • 19 Jul 2016

            Helicopter money: A viable policy tool? 19 July, 2016

            429 kb

             
          • 07 Jul 2016

            US: The labor market continues to support growth 7 July, 2016

            598 kb

             
          • 22 Jun 2016

            Spanish elections: Still long negotiations to follow 22 June, 2016

            270 kb

             
          • 10 Jun 2016

            Brexit: The fallout on Europe 10 June, 2016

            411 kb

             
          • 30 May 2016

            ECB to give new momentum to euro area credits 30 May, 2016

            321 kb

             
          • 17 May 2016

            Greece: A pragmatic deal but only for the short term 17 May, 2016

            327 kb

             
          • 22 Apr 2016

            Italy: Escape velocity not achieved yet 22 April, 2016

            329 kb

             
          • 18 Apr 2016

            Japan's monetary policy: Next Bazooka imminent? 18 April, 2016

            461 kb

             
          • 30 Mar 2016

            What's next for US inflation? 30 March, 2016

            556 kb

             
          • 17 Mar 2016

            New ECB measures: A mixed bag for banks 17 March, 2016

            267 kb

             
          • 08 Mar 2016

            ECB: Further easing steps ahead 8 March, 2016

            370 kb

             
          • 07 Mar 2016

            Brexit: What is at stake? 7 March, 2016

            906 kb

             
          • 22 Feb 2016

            Credit: Searching for value after recent market woes 22 February, 2016

            516 kb

             
          • 20 Jan 2016

            Earnings outlook to favor EA equities

            419 kb

             
          • 05 Jan 2016

            German growth to stay solid 5 January, 2016

            562 kb

             

          INVESTMENT VIEW

          The investment View offers the “House View” of Generali Investments on the global economy and financial markets. It is based on the consolidated views coming out of the quarterly investment meetings. Starting with a global view, the publication includes a macro-economic analysis of the most important areas (USA, Euro-area, Japan and Great Britain). In the second part, the asset classes bonds, equities and currencies are analyzsed and forecasted. The Investment View closes with an overview on the forecasts and the resulting model portfolios.

          INVESTMENT VIEW

          • 28 Jun 2018

            Investment View: The Beginning of the End

            2 mb

             
          • 27 Mar 2018

            Investment View Q2 2018

            2 mb

             
          • 28 Sep 2017

            A slowly rising tide of rates

            2 mb

             

          Investment view

          • 28 Jun 2018

            Investment View: The Beginning of the End

            2 mb

             
          • 27 Mar 2018

            Investment View Q2 2018

            2 mb

             
          • 28 Sep 2017

            A slowly rising tide of rates

            2 mb

             
          • 29 Mar 2017

            Economic spring time countering political risks - Q2 2017

            2 mb

             
          • 30 Sep 2016

            Coping with political uncertainties and divergent monetary policies - Q4 2016

            2 mb

             
          • 04 Jul 2016

            Brexit: A risky divorce Q3 2016

            2 mb

             
          • 21 Mar 2016

            Investing amid lingering global growth worries Q2 2016

            4 mb

             


          Outlook

          Each year Generali Investments' research team assembles the macroeconomic global outlook and the key financial trends for the coming twelve months.

          OUTLOOK

          • 13 Dec 2017

            2018

            2 mb

             
          • 19 Dec 2016

            2017

            2 mb

             
          • 01 Dec 2015

            2016

            3 mb

             

          WORKING PAPERS

          The Generali's Working Papers Series hosts the preliminary results of research projects, published to stimulate discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in the papers are those of the authors and do not involve the responsibility of the Generali Group. Any errors or omissions are responsibility of the authors.

          WORKING PAPERS

          • 28 Sep 2016

            We challenge the common wisdom that the income elasticity of insurance be higher, ceteris paribus, in developing countries (the so-called S-curve hypothesis). Focusing on non-life insurance, we show that the available evidence is contradictory and heavily dependent on methodology. Based on a recent approach to consistent inference on the income elasticity of insurance, we show counterexamples to the theory. Although not supporting it in general, we argue that it could still be relevant for explaining the behaviour of particular lines of business.

            373 kb

          Working papers

          • 28 Sep 2016

            We challenge the common wisdom that the income elasticity of insurance be higher, ceteris paribus, in developing countries (the so-called S-curve hypothesis). Focusing on non-life insurance, we show that the available evidence is contradictory and heavily dependent on methodology. Based on a recent approach to consistent inference on the income elasticity of insurance, we show counterexamples to the theory. Although not supporting it in general, we argue that it could still be relevant for explaining the behaviour of particular lines of business.

            373 kb

          • The development of Italian private pension plans shows little progress, in spite of generous fiscal incentives. We show that few subjects contribute and even fewer fully exploit the fiscal advantage. Our analysis underlines that in evaluating fiscal incentives Italian savers are influenced by a wide range of heuristics. So there is room for skillful public and private decision makers to reach the goal of increasing the private pension pillar taking advantage of the way people really take their decisions.

            2 mb

          • This paper analyses the impact of the evolution of the regulation dealing with systemically important insurance groups, using an event study methodology. The results show that investors were able to detect which companies were to be designated well ahead of the publication of the list. Most important, after an initial positive reaction, consistent with the expectation of a “Too-big-to-fail” implicit subsidy, the disclosure on how the capital charges for systemic insurers will be calculated led to sizeable negative abnormal returns for the entities concerned.

            2 mb


          Insurance dossier: Italian market trends

          Generali's annual publication "Insurance Dossier" explains key statistical information on the Italian insurance market.

          Insurance dossier

          • 20 Jun 2018

            The growth of gross written premiums in 2017 was significant in the Central and Eastern European countries, while it was negative or stable with respect to the previous year in the Western countries. In 2017 the overall premium income in the Italian insurance industry declined for the second year in a row (-2.2%) amounting to almost 140 billion. Premium income in the life segment amounted to 103 billion suffering a 3.4% decrease (considering gross direct business written by Italian companies). The current low interest rate environment continued to negatively affect the appeal of guaranteed products and, also in the light of the stringent requirements imposed by Solvency II, insurance companies have shifted the product mix in favor of class III policies and multiline (hybrid) products. After five years of disappointing results, the non-life lines grew by 1.2% but negatively affected by the poor trend in the motor sector (-0.7%), due to the strong competition between operators favored by the good technical results, driven by low claims frequency (in line with European countries) and by a contraction, albeit slight, in the average cost of claims. Generali Group confirmed its market leadership in terms of global business, with a premium income of €23,165 million and a 16.6 % market share.

            605 kb

          • 16 Jun 2017

            In most of the core European markets the trend of the life insurance was mainly negative in 2016, with the only notable exception of Spain and Hungary, given that the macroeconomic scenario continued to be characterized by very low bond yields. The shift towards Unit linked products was not able to recover the falling down of traditional products and now insurers are mainly pushing for hybrid products. Non-life insurance premium collection posted a far better result than the life one, in line with the previous year, thanks in particularly to the good performance of the motor insurance where we are seeing a recovery after years of low profitability.

            758 kb

          • 17 Jun 2016

            Economic growth in Euro area continued but remained frail sustained by the recovery of the internal demand with positive impact on insurance sector in almost all European Countries. The macroeconomic scenario characterized by very low bond yields, especially in the core European markets, was still a burden for the life insurance; the only notable exception was Spain where gross written premiums, after years of a negative trend, increased versus the previous year thanks to the performance of the risk business (+7.6%) driven by the recovery of the housing market. The new wave of uncertainty that affected financial markets at the end of the year re-oriented life insurance demand, previously focused on unit linked products, towards traditional product with guarantees.

            763 kb

          Insurance Dossier

          • 20 Jun 2018

            The growth of gross written premiums in 2017 was significant in the Central and Eastern European countries, while it was negative or stable with respect to the previous year in the Western countries. In 2017 the overall premium income in the Italian insurance industry declined for the second year in a row (-2.2%) amounting to almost 140 billion. Premium income in the life segment amounted to 103 billion suffering a 3.4% decrease (considering gross direct business written by Italian companies). The current low interest rate environment continued to negatively affect the appeal of guaranteed products and, also in the light of the stringent requirements imposed by Solvency II, insurance companies have shifted the product mix in favor of class III policies and multiline (hybrid) products. After five years of disappointing results, the non-life lines grew by 1.2% but negatively affected by the poor trend in the motor sector (-0.7%), due to the strong competition between operators favored by the good technical results, driven by low claims frequency (in line with European countries) and by a contraction, albeit slight, in the average cost of claims. Generali Group confirmed its market leadership in terms of global business, with a premium income of €23,165 million and a 16.6 % market share.

            605 kb

          • 16 Jun 2017

            In most of the core European markets the trend of the life insurance was mainly negative in 2016, with the only notable exception of Spain and Hungary, given that the macroeconomic scenario continued to be characterized by very low bond yields. The shift towards Unit linked products was not able to recover the falling down of traditional products and now insurers are mainly pushing for hybrid products. Non-life insurance premium collection posted a far better result than the life one, in line with the previous year, thanks in particularly to the good performance of the motor insurance where we are seeing a recovery after years of low profitability.

            758 kb

          • 17 Jun 2016

            Economic growth in Euro area continued but remained frail sustained by the recovery of the internal demand with positive impact on insurance sector in almost all European Countries. The macroeconomic scenario characterized by very low bond yields, especially in the core European markets, was still a burden for the life insurance; the only notable exception was Spain where gross written premiums, after years of a negative trend, increased versus the previous year thanks to the performance of the risk business (+7.6%) driven by the recovery of the housing market. The new wave of uncertainty that affected financial markets at the end of the year re-oriented life insurance demand, previously focused on unit linked products, towards traditional product with guarantees.

            763 kb

          • 30 Jun 2015

            During 2014 the improvement in financial conditions created opportunities for the insurance business in most of the European markets, where premium income and profitability were broadly on the rise. In the Euro area, life insurance premiums experienced substantial growth in several markets, maintaining and even overtaking the good performance of 2013. However, there are two exceptions to this trend: Germany, where growth slowed down and where the persistence of a low interest rate environment negatively affected the appeal of guaranteed and may represent a threat to companies financial stability, and Spain, where there was only a moderate level of growth in the life premiums in contrast to substantial contraction in past year. Low investment return combined with Solvency II Requirements have rapidly shifted the product mix in favor of Unit Linked policies.

            6 mb

          • 30 Jun 2014

            In 2013, the European insurance industry posted overall positive results. Life insurance premiums increased while the performance of non-life insurance was on average in line with that of 2012. In Italy, in 2013, total turnover was up 13.3%. In particular, life premiums (direct Italian business) grew by 22.5%; new business was up 31.3%.

            5 mb

          • 28 Jun 2013

            Market uncertainty and volatility heavily affected the performance of insurance industry in 2012. Life insurance turnover continued to contract in many of the main European markets due to the same factor which depressed premium growth in 2011, namely low household savings ratio and the unappealing level of guaranteed yields, especially in comparison with those of bank products, which were also supported by aggressive marketing strategies. These factors are clearly at play in the Italian market, where premiums were down 3.8%. Much of the fall was recorded in the first part of the year: the rebound in confidence following ECB action in September boosted collection in the final quarter of the year.

            392 kb

          • 29 Jun 2012

            In 2011 the performance of the Italian insurance industry was heavily affected by the difficult financial and economic situation in Europe. Premium income in the life sectors dropped all over Europe compared with the previous year, as the difficult economic conditions facing families seriously hindered their propensity to save. On top of that, the decline in guaranteed returns due to pre-crisis low interest rate environment, combined with the effect of strong competition from other savings products, especially those distributed by banks, contributed to further wors-en the life insurance performance. This trend was apparent on the Italian market, where life premium income fell by 12.3% (reaching 18.3% if we take into account direct Italian premium income) and where bancassurance channel recorded an over 25% decline in premiums .

            937 kb

          • 29 Jul 2011

            The stabilisation of the financial markets during 2009 promoted the growth The strong recovery of premium income recorded in the life sector in 2009 continued on all the main markets in 2010. Growth was again driven by low risk products which offer a minimum guaranteed return; demand for these products benefited from a rather steep yield curve and the volatility of the stock markets, which in many countries penalised the growth of linked products. The Italian market was once again the most dynamic, with 9.2% growth.

            451 kb