04 December 2025
Resilience by Design: Strengthening Health and Human Development in a Changing Climate
From the surge in heatwaves and vector-borne diseases to the growing strain on healthcare systems, the new Generali–UNDP joint report explores how climate change is reshaping health, insurance, and society – and highlights the key factors to consider to protect people and build resilience for the challenges ahead
What if the way we think about health, security, and our future needed a radical update? “Resilience by Design: Strengthening Health and Human Development in a Changing Climate” is not just another climate report - it’s a wake-up call and a toolkit for action. Produced within the Generali–UNDP partnership, this research dives into the heart of one of today’s emerging key questions: how do we address emerging health risks driven by climate change - risks often overlooked but capable of becoming explosive when combined with existing vulnerabilities?
Key goals and takeaways for building resilience
The new landscape of risk
Imagine a world where climate change, pandemics, food insecurity, displacement and economic shocks don’t just overlap - they amplify each other, making the future less predictable and more volatile. The report describes this as an “uncertainty complex,” where the boundaries between environmental, social, and economic risks blur.
In recent years, we’ve witnessed the first-ever global decline in the Human Development Index, and the path to recovery remains uneven. The evolving nature of uncertainty may soon outpace the ability of existing systems to respond. Traditional mechanisms for managing risks - like private insurance and social protection - were designed for a more stable world. As the baseline of hazards shifts and volatility increases, these instruments risk becoming less effective or increasingly costly, widening the protection gap.
Yet, there are ways to move forward: rapid advances in technology, such as AI and satellite imagery, are giving us the tools to understand and anticipate these risks like never before. These advances are fostering breakthroughs in climate modelling, environmental monitoring and quantitative assessment of human vulnerabilities worldwide.
The insurance sector’s evolving role
Insurance has always been about providing peace of mind to individuals, families, and businesses - a safety net when life takes an unexpected turn. As such, it plays a critical role in stabilizing human development and contributes to strengthening societal resilience. But as the climate crisis accelerates, risks are amplified and evolve ever more rapidly.
The report highlights how the insurance sector is being pushed to actively help societies adapt and become more resilient. The challenge? As effects of climate changes intensify, the cost of protection rises, and some risks may become uninsurable. This is a call for new solutions, smarter data, and bold partnerships - so that insurance remains accessible.
Climate change: a direct threat to Life and Health
Climate change is profoundly reshaping patterns of vulnerability and risk for human life and health. Rising temperatures, more frequent and severe heatwaves, and the spread of climate-sensitive diseases are expected to drive a sharp increase in both acute and chronic health conditions, elevating mortality and morbidity rates worldwide. These impacts are especially severe when climate risks intersect with existing demographic trends, such as ageing populations and strained healthcare systems, potentially pushing public health infrastructure toward unsustainable levels of stress.
The report emphasizes that climate change not only threatens life expectancy through increased mortality, but also has far-reaching effects on overall population health by increasing the prevalence of disease and worsening health outcomes. Without proactive adaptation and investment, the compounded effects of climate change could deepen healthcare protection gaps and widen inequalities, making resilience and targeted policy responses more urgent than ever.
Generali’s climate risk model: turning data into action
To address these mounting risks, the report presents Generali’s Aeolus risk model, designed to measure how climate change impacts the insurance business - providing critical insights that support both underwriting and investment decisions.
The model relies on a range of climate scenarios, projecting how changes in temperature and other climate factors could be a source of stress to our systems in the future.
Generali’s climate risk model: turning data into action - Framework of the Generali Group Climate Risk Model
Collaboration with UNDP was essential for calibrating these stresses, providing specifically the data foundation needed to quantify how long-term shifts in temperature patterns impact human life and health.
The model uses climate and health data to forecast how tomorrow’s risks will impact people and insurance, examining how chronic temperature increases, air pollution, vector-borne diseases, and heatwaves interact to affect both mortality and morbidity.
Generali’s climate risk model: turning data into action - Impact of climate change on life and health included in the Generali Group Climate Risk Model
The country in scope are Europe and Asia, in alignment with Generali’s geographical presence and also where climate impacts or demographic trends like ageing are especially pronounced.
Health and societal impacts
The report paints a vivid picture of what’s at stake if we fail to act. In Europe, heatwaves could mean up to 86 more deaths per 100,000 people by 2050, with Southern Europe most affected. In Asia, diseases like dengue and chikungunya could cause up to 45 additional deaths per 100,000, and over 15,000 more people per 100,000 could suffer from related illnesses.
|
Indicator |
Europe (2050) |
Asia (2050) |
|
Additional deaths from heatwaves |
+86 / 100,000 |
+17 / 100,000 |
|
Additional deaths from vector-borne diseases |
+10 / 100,000 |
+45 / 100,000 |
|
Additional morbidity (vector-borne) |
+3,314 / 100,000 |
+15,157 / 100,000 |
|
Additional morbidity (heatwaves) |
+988 / 100,000 |
+286 / 100,000 |
|
Projected hospital bed shortfall |
Nearing 85% occupancy |
>10 million additional workers needed |
|
Increase in risk of obesity |
+8% |
+44% |
|
Increase in risk of mental illness |
+1% |
+3% |
These data show how climate change might amplify the structural fragilities of healthcare systems, especially in Europe and Asia. Many hospitals, already under strain, operate with occupancy rates between 60% and 80%, leaving little margin before reaching the emergency operative threshold of 85%. Moreover, prevention and early screening remain insufficient, while demographic ageing increases both the demand for care and vulnerability to climate risks.
Added to these challenges are shortages of healthcare and technical staff, which represent a critical constraint, further aggravated by facilities that are often outdated and vulnerable to extreme weather events. The growing burden of chronic diseases - such as diabetes, obesity, respiratory and mental health disorders - further amplifies the demand for services.
In this context, the ability of healthcare systems to absorb new climate shocks is severely limited. It is therefore urgent to revise care models, accelerate digitalization, invest in resilient infrastructure, and strengthen workforce training.
Pathways forward - from insight to impact
So, what’s next? The report doesn’t just diagnose the problem - it offers a set of key actions. Building resilience in the face of climate-driven health risks requires a dual approach: ambitious mitigation to address long-term climate trajectories, and adaptation to strengthen health systems against current and future shocks. This includes:
- Redesigning care models: hospitals should focus on complex and acute care, while chronic and preventive services are decentralized to community-based networks.
- Accelerating digitalization: interoperable data systems, AI-enabled diagnostics, telemedicine, and continuous monitoring are essential to manage rising morbidity and improve responsiveness.
- Investing in resilient infrastructure: upgrading hospitals, emergency systems, and energy resilience is critical to withstand heat, disruption, and extreme events.
- Renewing and training the workforce: strengthening training, retention, and climate-readiness through digital skills, epidemiology, and emergency response capacity.
- Enhancing prevention and public awareness: expanding early screening, risk communication, and early-warning systems for heatwaves, pollution peaks, and vector outbreaks.
- Integrating urban cooling and green infrastructure: implementing heat-mitigation strategies and green spaces to reduce exposure in dense urban areas.
The importance of public-private partnerships
Why does collaboration matter? Because no single organization can tackle these challenges alone. The implementation of an ambitious set of adaptation measures necessitates a systematic approach that integrates private actors with the public sector.
Public-private partnerships are essential to accelerate adaptation, blend public funding with private capital, and scale responses faster than climate-driven health risks evolve. By combining public health intelligence with private analytics, forecasting, targeting, and crisis response are improved. Shared responsibility between public governance and private innovation strengthens systemic readiness and resilience.
Insurance companies, with approximately €12 trillion in assets in Europe alone1, play a unique and pivotal role - as institutional investors, risk managers, and partners in developing integrated protection solutions. Their involvement unlocks capital, accelerates innovation, and supports the development of resilient infrastructure and digital health ecosystems.
Discover more about Generali’s commitment to public-private partnerships.
1 Estimate refers to 2023 data.
