Europe at the Crossroads: Building Independence in a Changing World

For decades, the European project thrived on the promise of interdependence. Security was guaranteed through NATO and, above all, the transatlantic partnership with the United States. Technological innovation was imported, adapted, and regulated rather than domestically generated. Energy was supplied by relatively cheap imports from Russia and the Middle East. This model allowed European governments to pool sovereignty within the EU, provide stability and prosperity at home, and position Europe as a “normative power” in world politics.

Today, this model is under strain. Russia’s war against Ukraine, intensifying geopolitical competition between the US and China, the weaponization of energy flows, and disruptive technologies such as AI and quantum computing all expose Europe’s vulnerabilities. Mario Draghi, in his recent Rimini speech, underscored how Europe faces an urgent need to move from complacency to capability, from assuming that others will provide to equipping itself to act.

In what follows, I will argue that Europe’s challenge is not independence in the absolute sense, no advanced economy can be fully self-sufficient, but independence in the sense of resilience: the ability to adapt, to secure itself, to power its economies, and to innovate technologically without being unduly dependent on actors who may not share its interests. To achieve this, Europe has instruments at hand, but using them requires political courage, institutional adaptation, and above all leadership that can frame independence as a common European project rather than a zero-sum national contest.

European security has long been shielded by the American guarantee. The US provided the bulk of NATO’s capabilities, from intelligence and logistics to nuclear deterrence. But as American politics grows more polarized, and as Washington increasingly focuses on its rivalry with China, Europeans can no longer take for granted that their security will always remain Washington’s top priority. The prospect of a US administration less committed to NATO than in the past makes this clear.

This shifting context should not be read as a call to decouple from the US. On the contrary, NATO remains indispensable, and American power continues to underpin Europe’s defense. But Europe must be able to make its own choices. That means investing more seriously in defense capabilities, in readiness, and in shared procurement. At present, European defense markets remain fragmented, with 27 different systems and procurement strategies. Pooling demand, through the European Defence Fund and coordinated NATO initiatives, would not only yield efficiency but also enhance credibility.

Europe is rightly proud of being a regulatory superpower. From the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) to the forthcoming AI Act, EU rules shape not only European markets but global ones. Yet regulation without innovation risks leaving Europe dependent on others’ technologies.

Today, most of the cutting-edge digital platforms are American, while China is rapidly catching up in critical areas such as AI and quantum. Europe excels in scientific research and has world-class universities and researchers, but struggles to translate this knowledge into scalable technologies. Venture capital markets are fragmented, start-ups often move abroad once they need to scale, and the EU’s single market remains incomplete in key sectors, especially services.

The instruments to address this exist. Horizon Europe provides significant funding for research and innovation. The European Innovation Council is designed to scale promising technologies. The EU Chips Act aims to secure semiconductor supply chains, while initiatives on cloud computing and digital infrastructure seek to reduce dependence. But scale and speed are lacking. Draghi’s Rimini speech highlighted the need for a leap in European investment capacity, comparable to what the US Inflation Reduction Act and China’s industrial strategies represent. That implies mobilizing not only EU funds but also private capital, which in turn requires deeper integration of Europe’s capital markets.

Independence in technology does not mean Europe must replicate everything the US or China produces. But it does mean developing sovereign capabilities in key areas where dependency could prove dangerous: semiconductors, AI, green technologies, and cybersecurity. Here, cooperation across borders is indispensable. No single European country can compete alone. A truly integrated digital single market and coordinated industrial policy are prerequisites for Europe’s technological independence. And this, too, requires leadership: not the temptation to nationalize successes, but the willingness to Europeanize them.

Europe’s future will not be written by nostalgia for past models of interdependence. It will be shaped by whether Europeans can forge a form of independence that is neither isolationist nor complacent, but resilient. Security, technology, and energy are the arenas where this resilience must be built. The US shift from guarantor to partner makes this urgent, but also possible.

The challenge is formidable. Yet Europe has the resources, the instruments, and the legacy of innovation under pressure. What it needs is leadership: leaders who are willing to tell uncomfortable truths, to mobilize publics for long-term goals, and to act decisively when crises demand it.

Independence in the 21st century does not mean standing alone. It means being able to stand firmly with allies, while retaining the capacity to act when others do not. Delivering that vision will demand leadership, of the kind that unites publics around a shared purpose, dares to take risks, and is willing to explain that Europe’s strength lies in doing hard things together. That is the essence of sovereignty, and it is Europe’s task for the decade ahead.