A Brief Manual for Staying Optimistic
Populism on the rise, volatile political choices, and the threat of a “technological Cold War”. But history reminds us that innovation and adaptability have always found a way through times of crisis
THE CONTEXT
“We are probably in a more transformative moment than the birth of the Internet itself,” Myers says.
From decarbonization to artificial intelligence, and from shifting global alliances to the recalibration of power between the United States and China, the world is undergoing profound and interconnected transformations. These transitions present both extraordinary opportunities and complex challenges, demanding not only vigilance but also a proactive embrace of the future.
The world economy is increasingly defined by dual forces: on the one hand, fragmentation driven by protectionism and political polarization; on the other, growth fueled by innovation and investment. The United States, in particular, stands at the center of a virtuous cycle of fiscal stimulus, strong inflows of foreign direct investment, deregulation, and what can be described as a multi-year innovation supercycle – i.e., a prolonged period of strong economic growth, leading to sustained demand for commodities beyond what producers can supply. Meanwhile, Europe is grappling with uneven economic speeds, China is recalibrating its development strategy, and the Middle East is investing heavily in emerging technologies.
At the core of these shifts lies politics: persistent populism, volatile policy choices, and the looming prospect of a “technological Cold War”. Yet optimism endures. As history shows, innovation and adaptation often overcome crisis pressures.
Guiding us through this reflection is Charles Myers, founder and chairman of Signum Global Advisors, a strategic consulting firm operating at the intersection of politics and global financial markets. With over twenty years of political and electoral experience in the United States – advising candidates at every level of office – and twenty-five years in global financial markets, Myers is widely regarded as a leading interpreter of the dynamics linking Washington, Wall Street, and major world capitals.
In the following conversation, Myers does not downplay the risks – from political uncertainty to inflation and employment challenges posed by AI and robotics. Yet he is equally clear that the positive forces at work are often underestimated. «We are arguably in a more transformative moment than the advent of the internet itself», he observes, pointing to the sweeping impact of AI and robotics. It is here that the idea of “new horizons” emerges: in the ability to look ahead, to harness the power of change, and maintain confidence in the future.
Mr. Charles Myers, which macroeconomic scenario do you consider most likely over the next 12–18 months, and why?
I believe the global economy will continue along the trajectory it has long followed, though today’s context accentuates challenges such as decoupling, protectionism, and political polarization. We are likely to see increasingly disparate economic performance across regions, depending on local circumstances.
From a top-down perspective, the outlook for the U.S. economy remains very positive. Despite polarization and global decoupling, the U.S. retains the capacity to lead and support the broader global economy. Several factors contributing to this optimism are perhaps underappreciated: substantial fiscal stimulus continues to flow into the U.S. economy; foreign direct investment is running 10–15% above the historical average, with numerous foreign companies and even governments investing; and we are witnessing the most significant deregulatory push in financial services and energy since the Reagan era.
On top of all this, the U.S. is experiencing a multi-year innovation supercycle in technology that began under the current administration. Together, these elements suggest a strong and resilient economic outlook over the next 12–18 months.
And what about Europe, China, the Middle East, and the rest of Asia?
Europe presents a mixed picture. Some countries appear very strong, while others continue to struggle with fiscal deficits and complex political environments. China is attempting to reinvigorate its economy. Results so far have been mixed, and we can expect a somewhat sluggish recovery, though they are ultimately likely to succeed. Ideally, a scenario in which both the U.S. and China perform well would be the best possible outcome for the global economy.
Asia varies greatly by country. In the Middle East, economic prospects remain strong even amid lower oil prices. Many countries are rapidly diversifying their economies, investing hundreds of billions in artificial intelligence and other technologies. Over the next five to ten years, these investments are likely to yield significant gains.
One area of concern is inflation. As tariffs are absorbed into the economy, we can expect some inflationary pressure, primarily through one-off price adjustments.
Populism remains widespread globally. To what extent does this phenomenon continue to pose a systemic risk to financial markets and sectors such as trade, technology regulation, and energy?
I remain cautiously optimistic. Looking ahead two to three years, there is a risk that President Trump could take unpredictable or potentially damaging actions, affecting U.S. institutions or international allies. This creates an environment of policy uncertainty and volatility – something we also experienced during his first administration. That period was marked by high cabinet turnover and major disruptions, including the pandemic and attempts to challenge election results. Such volatility is now a factor that must be considered when investing in the U.S.; it is simply a feature of today’s economic landscape.
We can see it every week, right?
Indeed. Whether through tariffs or other policy shifts, rapid course changes are common: President Trump is willing to reverse course entirely when necessary. The single biggest change since Trump’s return is that global investors are questioning the safe haven status of the United States. I would argue, however, that despite actions such as attacking the Federal Reserve, bypassing Congress, or straining international relations, the underlying economic fundamentals remain strong enough to maintain this status.
And the United States will continue to be at the forefront of innovation.
Our economy remains by far the largest, most dynamic, and most innovative. Over the past 150 years, the United States has consistently led in technological innovation, dating back to the railroads. For other countries, this creates both challenges and benefits. Neighbors like Canada and Mexico have benefited enormously, and the U.S. has gained from having friendly and economically important neighbors. Geography and historical circumstances have provided the U.S. with advantages that most countries simply do not have, reinforcing its leadership in technological progress.
The ideal scenario would be one in which both the United States and China perform well: the best outcome for the global economy
From a geopolitical perspective, how significant are dependencies on specific routes or countries for critical components?
China remains the largest geopolitical and technological competitor to the U.S. Over time, we are likely to see two distinct technological systems emerge. Countries will eventually need to choose which system to align with. Some nations, like North Korea, Iran, and parts of the global South, may align with China, but most of the world is likely to remain integrated with the West, benefiting from a more efficient and productive technology ecosystem.
Do you see a Cold War-type scenario?
Absolutely. I think we already are in a new Cold War-type scenario, playing out more technologically. Countries are already starting to choose sides, and some may have no alternative. Nations like North Korea and Iran are geopolitically aligned with China and are essentially compelled to follow that path. India has already made a choice, and they’re a very strong ally of the United States, while Brazil appears to be leaning toward China. In five to ten years, we will see two distinct technological systems, with the Chinese system smaller in scale, de facto.
Focusing on technology, and on artificial intelligence in particular, how do you assess its current impact on national security?
I would include robotics alongside AI, as both are driving rapid transformation. As with any period of transformational change, there are significant national security implications.
Regulatory frameworks are currently lagging, they tend to be reactive. When AI-related issues arise, regulators attempt to mitigate future risks and prevent similar incidents.
NUMBERS
78%
Percentage of companies using AI (Stanford University).
$190bln
Investments in AI in the US (in China $9.3 bln).
22%
The growth of AI graduates over the past ten years.
Is Europe trying to figure out how to regulate proactively?
The good news is that Europe is much better at regulating than the United States. Europe is likely to lead and may establish the model for artificial intelligence governance, providing a framework that other regions could follow.
What geopolitical risks could arise within AI?
Beyond national security concerns such as intelligence, espionage, and election interference, a major issue is employment. Automation driven by AI and robotics could displace large numbers of jobs. Governments will need to address these challenges, although I see this as a five-to-ten-year issue rather than an immediate one.
A new industrial revolution driven by clean energy and AI appears underway. Where do you believe the next major opportunities might emerge?
Artificial intelligence and robotics are already generating efficiency gains across economies. We are moving toward a world where machines will perform many tasks. These developments will improve economic efficiency and potentially quality of life. If countries like the United States and those in Europe manage this transition well, we can expect substantial increases in wealth creation and economic development.
Will there be issues as well?
Yes, income inequality is likely to widen, driven in part by technological change. Nonetheless, the overall benefits in terms of efficiency, quality of life, and economic growth are likely to outweigh the negatives. AI could prove even more transformative than the internet, with profound positive impacts on society.
In connection with the theme of “New Horizons”, let us reflect on both past and future horizons: what has been the most significant political or market surprise of the past decade, and what lessons can it offer for the future?
Probably the biggest surprise in the last ten years has been how quickly artificial intelligence emerged. Language models have been around for a long time, but companies like OpenAI figured out how to make them useful utilities only in the last four or five years. The pace of innovation is accelerating, and each cycle is faster than the last – much faster than the industrial revolution, which took years.
Does this rapid pace add challenges for the future?
Indeed. AI is evolving so quickly that nations, companies, and individuals must determine how best to leverage it for efficiency and societal benefit. Governments are often behind the curve. We all need to figure out how to use this technology over the next five to ten years. And again, as with most transitions in human history, some countries will manage it better than others. I do think that democracies may have an advantage, as flexible economies and open access to information are critical for AI development. In countries with censorship or restricted information flows, AI’s effectiveness and quality are likely to be limited. Overall, I remain optimistic about the role of democratic nations in shaping the AI-driven future.
The greatest surprise over the past decade has been how quickly artificial intelligence has risen
Charles Myers
Founder and chairman of Signum Global Advisors, he has advised figures such as Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, and has a long experience in global financial markets.
Alessandro Cappelli
Journalist with experience in video production, short and long-form writing, and storytelling across diverse topics. Passionate about sports and international politics. Working at Linkiesta since 2020.