Generali SpA

Welcome to the Generali Group
Please select your country

Our locations
                           

Economic research

This page hosts contributions from the Generali Group’s specialized research and analysis centres: Generali Investments' Group Macroeconomic and Financial Research and Generali's Group Insurance Research.

Generali Investments video interviews

The video series Generali Investments in Action provides regular interviews with Generali Investments’ research senior specialists and their views on the financial markets.

GI video interviews

GI video interviews

Market Perspectives

Generali Investments' Market Perspectives publication delivers monthly information about the international financial markets. It deals with up-to-date economic data as well as current trends at capital markets. This publication is available only in English.

Market Perspectives

  • 07 Mar 2017

    March 2017

    2 mb

     
  • 28 Feb 2017

    February 2017

    3 mb

     
  • 31 Jan 2017

    December 2016 / January 2017

    2 mb

     

Focal point

The Generali Investments' Focal Point publication is designed to address on an ad hoc basis varying topics of high relevance for financial markets. Its focus is medium-term in order to support the Tactical Asset Allocation process with relevant  investment ideas.

FOCAL POINT

  • 10 Mar 2017

    Limited risks from Dutch election outcome

    547 kb

     
  • 08 Mar 2017

    Accelerated US rate hikes ahead

    467 kb

     
  • 21 Dec 2016

    Trumponomics and the case for higher US rates 21 December, 2016

    294 kb

     

Focal Point

  • 10 Mar 2017

    Limited risks from Dutch election outcome

    547 kb

     
  • 08 Mar 2017

    Accelerated US rate hikes ahead

    467 kb

     
  • 21 Dec 2016

    Trumponomics and the case for higher US rates 21 December, 2016

    294 kb

     
  • 15 Dec 2016

    BoJ to show commitment to its interest targets 15 December, 2016

    207 kb

     
  • 18 Nov 2016

    Italian referendum: Future governability at stake 18 November, 2016

    489 kb

     
  • 09 Nov 2016

    What is at stake with Trump as new US President? 9 November, 2016

    311 kb

     
  • 04 Nov 2016

    US election: equity martet implications 4 November, 2016

    679 kb

     
  • 24 Oct 2016

    Earnings growth to turn back into positive territory 24 October, 2016

    467 kb

     
  • 18 Oct 2016

    China’s structural debt problem is still aggravating 18 October, 2016

    245 kb

     
  • 13 Oct 2016

    Debt issuance cannot keep up with ECB purchases 13 October, 2016

    269 kb

     
  • 06 Oct 2016

    Impacts of a European Financial Transaction Tax 6 October, 2016

    412 kb

     
  • 30 Sep 2016

    Oil prices: A mild rebound is in the cards 30 September, 2016

    641 kb

     
  • 16 Sep 2016

    ECB: Action postponed towards year-end 16 September, 2016

    527 kb

     
  • 06 Sep 2016

    US presidential elections: What is at stake? 6 September, 2016

    542 kb

     
  • 19 Jul 2016

    Helicopter money: A viable policy tool? 19 July, 2016

    429 kb

     
  • 07 Jul 2016

    US: The labor market continues to support growth 7 July, 2016

    598 kb

     
  • 22 Jun 2016

    Spanish elections: Still long negotiations to follow 22 June, 2016

    270 kb

     
  • 10 Jun 2016

    Brexit: The fallout on Europe 10 June, 2016

    411 kb

     
  • 30 May 2016

    ECB to give new momentum to euro area credits 30 May, 2016

    321 kb

     
  • 17 May 2016

    Greece: A pragmatic deal but only for the short term 17 May, 2016

    327 kb

     
  • 22 Apr 2016

    Italy: Escape velocity not achieved yet 22 April, 2016

    329 kb

     
  • 18 Apr 2016

    Japan's monetary policy: Next Bazooka imminent? 18 April, 2016

    461 kb

     
  • 30 Mar 2016

    What's next for US inflation? 30 March, 2016

    556 kb

     
  • 17 Mar 2016

    New ECB measures: A mixed bag for banks 17 March, 2016

    267 kb

     
  • 08 Mar 2016

    ECB: Further easing steps ahead 8 March, 2016

    370 kb

     
  • 07 Mar 2016

    Brexit: What is at stake? 7 March, 2016

    906 kb

     
  • 22 Feb 2016

    Credit: Searching for value after recent market woes 22 February, 2016

    516 kb

     
  • 20 Jan 2016

    Earnings outlook to favor EA equities

    419 kb

     
  • 05 Jan 2016

    German growth to stay solid 5 January, 2016

    562 kb

     

INVESTMENT VIEW

The investment View offers the “House View” of Generali Investments on the global economy and financial markets. It is based on the consolidated views coming out of the quarterly investment meetings. Starting with a global view, the publication includes a macro-economic analysis of the most important areas (USA, Euro-area, Japan and Great Britain). In the second part, the asset classes bonds, equities and currencies are analyzsed and forecasted. The Investment View closes with an overview on the forecasts and the resulting model portfolios.

INVESTMENT VIEW

  • 30 Sep 2016

    Coping with political uncertainties and divergent monetary policies - Q4 2016

    2 mb

     
  • 04 Jul 2016

    Brexit: A risky divorce Q3 2016

    2 mb

     
  • 21 Mar 2016

    Investing amid lingering global growth worries Q2 2016

    4 mb

     

Investment view

  • 30 Sep 2016

    Coping with political uncertainties and divergent monetary policies - Q4 2016

    2 mb

     
  • 04 Jul 2016

    Brexit: A risky divorce Q3 2016

    2 mb

     
  • 21 Mar 2016

    Investing amid lingering global growth worries Q2 2016

    4 mb

     


Outlook

Each year Generali Investments' research team assembles the macroeconomic global outlook and the key financial trends for the coming twelve months.

OUTLOOK

  • 19 Dec 2016

    2017

    2 mb

     
  • 01 Dec 2015

    2016

    3 mb

     

WORKING PAPERS

The Generali's Working Papers Series hosts the preliminary results of research projects, published to stimulate discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in the papers are those of the authors and do not involve the responsibility of the Generali Group. Any errors or omissions are responsibility of the authors.

WORKING PAPERS

  • 28 Sep 2016

    We challenge the common wisdom that the income elasticity of insurance be higher, ceteris paribus, in developing countries (the so-called S-curve hypothesis). Focusing on non-life insurance, we show that the available evidence is contradictory and heavily dependent on methodology. Based on a recent approach to consistent inference on the income elasticity of insurance, we show counterexamples to the theory. Although not supporting it in general, we argue that it could still be relevant for explaining the behaviour of particular lines of business.

    373 kb

  • 22 Dec 2015

    This paper seeks to explain the large difference in the incidence of motor insurance fraud between Italian provinces. The econometric analysis highlights the role of the dierence in per capita income and strength of social norms common to other types of crimes. Moreover the differences in the average cost of purchasing this mandatory cover are shown to affect the propensity to defraud. Finally, cyclical fluctuations in the labor mar- ket have an effect, both directly and by weakening the deterrent power of social norms.

    334 kb

Working papers

  • 28 Sep 2016

    We challenge the common wisdom that the income elasticity of insurance be higher, ceteris paribus, in developing countries (the so-called S-curve hypothesis). Focusing on non-life insurance, we show that the available evidence is contradictory and heavily dependent on methodology. Based on a recent approach to consistent inference on the income elasticity of insurance, we show counterexamples to the theory. Although not supporting it in general, we argue that it could still be relevant for explaining the behaviour of particular lines of business.

    373 kb

  • 22 Dec 2015

    This paper seeks to explain the large difference in the incidence of motor insurance fraud between Italian provinces. The econometric analysis highlights the role of the dierence in per capita income and strength of social norms common to other types of crimes. Moreover the differences in the average cost of purchasing this mandatory cover are shown to affect the propensity to defraud. Finally, cyclical fluctuations in the labor mar- ket have an effect, both directly and by weakening the deterrent power of social norms.

    334 kb

  • The development of Italian private pension plans shows little progress, in spite of generous fiscal incentives. We show that few subjects contribute and even fewer fully exploit the fiscal advantage. Our analysis underlines that in evaluating fiscal incentives Italian savers are influenced by a wide range of heuristics. So there is room for skillful public and private decision makers to reach the goal of increasing the private pension pillar taking advantage of the way people really take their decisions.

    2 mb

  • This paper analyses the impact of the evolution of the regulation dealing with systemically important insurance groups, using an event study methodology. The results show that investors were able to detect which companies were to be designated well ahead of the publication of the list. Most important, after an initial positive reaction, consistent with the expectation of a “Too-big-to-fail” implicit subsidy, the disclosure on how the capital charges for systemic insurers will be calculated led to sizeable negative abnormal returns for the entities concerned.

    2 mb


Insurance dossier: Italian market trends

Generali's annual publication "Insurance Dossier" explains key statistical information on the Italian insurance market.

Insurance dossier

  • 17 Jun 2016

    Economic growth in Euro area continued but remained frail sustained by the recovery of the internal demand with positive impact on insurance sector in almost all European Countries. The macroeconomic scenario characterized by very low bond yields, especially in the core European markets, was still a burden for the life insurance; the only notable exception was Spain where gross written premiums, after years of a negative trend, increased versus the previous year thanks to the performance of the risk business (+7.6%) driven by the recovery of the housing market. The new wave of uncertainty that affected financial markets at the end of the year re-oriented life insurance demand, previously focused on unit linked products, towards traditional product with guarantees.

    763 kb

  • 30 Jun 2015

    During 2014 the improvement in financial conditions created opportunities for the insurance business in most of the European markets, where premium income and profitability were broadly on the rise. In the Euro area, life insurance premiums experienced substantial growth in several markets, maintaining and even overtaking the good performance of 2013. However, there are two exceptions to this trend: Germany, where growth slowed down and where the persistence of a low interest rate environment negatively affected the appeal of guaranteed and may represent a threat to companies financial stability, and Spain, where there was only a moderate level of growth in the life premiums in contrast to substantial contraction in past year. Low investment return combined with Solvency II Requirements have rapidly shifted the product mix in favor of Unit Linked policies.

    6 mb

  • 30 Jun 2014

    In 2013, the European insurance industry posted overall positive results. Life insurance premiums increased while the performance of non-life insurance was on average in line with that of 2012. In Italy, in 2013, total turnover was up 13.3%. In particular, life premiums (direct Italian business) grew by 22.5%; new business was up 31.3%.

    5 mb

Insurance Dossier

  • 17 Jun 2016

    Economic growth in Euro area continued but remained frail sustained by the recovery of the internal demand with positive impact on insurance sector in almost all European Countries. The macroeconomic scenario characterized by very low bond yields, especially in the core European markets, was still a burden for the life insurance; the only notable exception was Spain where gross written premiums, after years of a negative trend, increased versus the previous year thanks to the performance of the risk business (+7.6%) driven by the recovery of the housing market. The new wave of uncertainty that affected financial markets at the end of the year re-oriented life insurance demand, previously focused on unit linked products, towards traditional product with guarantees.

    763 kb

  • 30 Jun 2015

    During 2014 the improvement in financial conditions created opportunities for the insurance business in most of the European markets, where premium income and profitability were broadly on the rise. In the Euro area, life insurance premiums experienced substantial growth in several markets, maintaining and even overtaking the good performance of 2013. However, there are two exceptions to this trend: Germany, where growth slowed down and where the persistence of a low interest rate environment negatively affected the appeal of guaranteed and may represent a threat to companies financial stability, and Spain, where there was only a moderate level of growth in the life premiums in contrast to substantial contraction in past year. Low investment return combined with Solvency II Requirements have rapidly shifted the product mix in favor of Unit Linked policies.

    6 mb

  • 30 Jun 2014

    In 2013, the European insurance industry posted overall positive results. Life insurance premiums increased while the performance of non-life insurance was on average in line with that of 2012. In Italy, in 2013, total turnover was up 13.3%. In particular, life premiums (direct Italian business) grew by 22.5%; new business was up 31.3%.

    5 mb

  • 28 Jun 2013

    Market uncertainty and volatility heavily affected the performance of insurance industry in 2012. Life insurance turnover continued to contract in many of the main European markets due to the same factor which depressed premium growth in 2011, namely low household savings ratio and the unappealing level of guaranteed yields, especially in comparison with those of bank products, which were also supported by aggressive marketing strategies. These factors are clearly at play in the Italian market, where premiums were down 3.8%. Much of the fall was recorded in the first part of the year: the rebound in confidence following ECB action in September boosted collection in the final quarter of the year.

    392 kb

  • 29 Jun 2012

    In 2011 the performance of the Italian insurance industry was heavily affected by the difficult financial and economic situation in Europe. Premium income in the life sectors dropped all over Europe compared with the previous year, as the difficult economic conditions facing families seriously hindered their propensity to save. On top of that, the decline in guaranteed returns due to pre-crisis low interest rate environment, combined with the effect of strong competition from other savings products, especially those distributed by banks, contributed to further wors-en the life insurance performance. This trend was apparent on the Italian market, where life premium income fell by 12.3% (reaching 18.3% if we take into account direct Italian premium income) and where bancassurance channel recorded an over 25% decline in premiums .

    937 kb

  • 29 Jul 2011

    The stabilisation of the financial markets during 2009 promoted the growth The strong recovery of premium income recorded in the life sector in 2009 continued on all the main markets in 2010. Growth was again driven by low risk products which offer a minimum guaranteed return; demand for these products benefited from a rather steep yield curve and the volatility of the stock markets, which in many countries penalised the growth of linked products. The Italian market was once again the most dynamic, with 9.2% growth.

    451 kb